December 10, 2011

The 2011 Parliament in my universe

As in the 2008 election, I recalculated the seat parliamentary distribution if New Zealand had used a Proper Proportional System in which each vote has as much equal weight as practically possible. It means a party gets its seats by multiplying its party vote share by 1.2 to get to a 120-seat parliament (using Swedish rounding in the percentage fractions).
The outcome would be like this (difference in actual seats in brackets):

National Party: 47.31% = 56.77 = 57 seats (-2)
Labour Party: 27.48% = 32.98 = 33 seats (-1)
Green Party: 11.06% = 13.27 = 13 seats (-1)
New Zealand First Party: 6.59% = 7.91 = 8 seats (0)
Maori Party: 1.43% = 1.72 = 2 seats (-1)
Mana Party: 1.08% = 1.3 = 1 seat (0)
ACT New Zealand: 1.07% = 1.28 = 1 (0)
United Future: 0.6% = 0.72 = 1 (0)
Conservative Party: 2.65% = 3.18 = 3 (+3)
Aoteraoa Legalise Cannabis Party: 0.52% = 0.62 = 1 (+1)
The other parties did not make the threshold (4,518 votes were 'wasted', compared to 75,492 under MMP)

John Key could rule with ACT and the Conservatives.

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